{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.02465", "name": "龙蟠科技", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "能源储存装置", "sw2": "能源储存装置", "sw3": "", "ind": "能源储存装置", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20241030", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.4, "pe_ttm": 19.262, "pb": 1.246, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 743645.19164, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [12.7], "rev_series": [99.4], "np_series": [-1.7], "roe_series": [-5.8], "rev_ttm": 99.4, "np_ttm": 3.9, "ocf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 5.8, "gm_median": 12.7, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": -1.7, "roe_median": -5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.8, "fix_assets": 73.6, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 79.8, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 21.7, "np_yoy": 80.6, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -31.7, "ret_20": -7.9, "ret_60": -22.6, "ret_120": -15.1, "ret_250": -6.5, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 40.0, "eps": -0.239}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 38, "hard": 62, "bondness": 13}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 39%,但毛利率最新年报只有 12.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 80%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 12.7%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 5.8%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 12.7%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 39%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.3 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,现价在 52 周高点的 40%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -23% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「能源储存装置」16 家中位:PE 15.9 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 0%。", "龙蟠科技:PE 比行业中位高 3.4倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.2个百分点。"]}}