{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.02425", "name": "澳亚集团", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "乳制品", "sw2": "乳制品", "sw3": "", "ind": "乳制品", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20221230", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.8, "pe_ttm": -5.787, "pb": 0.445, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 176516.70408, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [18.3], "rev_series": [38.6], "np_series": [-8.3], "roe_series": [-21.3], "rev_ttm": 38.6, "np_ttm": -3.0, "ocf_ttm": 5.8, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 32.8, "gm_median": 18.3, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": -21.6, "roe_median": -21.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.7, "fix_assets": 33.6, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": -5.0, "debt_ratio": 62.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -1.6, "np_yoy": 38.2, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -14.3, "ret_20": -9.5, "ret_60": 3.4, "ret_120": -20.4, "ret_250": -23.1, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 64.3, "eps": -0.847}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 52, "bondness": 13}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率最新年报只有 18.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 62%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 18.3%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 32.8%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 18.3%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 33%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 3% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「乳制品」9 家中位:PE 12.2 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 29.8% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 0%。", "澳亚集团:PE 比行业中位低 18.0倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.4个百分点。"]}}