{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.02314", "name": "理文造纸", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "纸及纸制品", "sw2": "纸及纸制品", "sw3": "", "ind": "纸及纸制品", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030926", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.735, "pe_ttm": 6.406, "pb": 0.484, "dv_ttm": 5.49, "total_mv": 1604182.5, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [14.6], "rev_series": [266.4], "np_series": [19.4], "roe_series": [6.6], "rev_ttm": 266.4, "np_ttm": 25.0, "ocf_ttm": 37.3, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 23.2, "gm_median": 14.6, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 7.3, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 71.9, "fix_assets": 406.2, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 24.8, "debt_ratio": 47.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 35.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.5, "np_yoy": 43.0, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 22.0, "earn_yield": 15.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 43.9, "ret_20": -11.1, "ret_60": 25.4, "ret_120": 3.9, "ret_250": 38.6, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 84.3, "eps": 0.452}, "S": {"duration": 15, "pricing": 39, "hard": 100, "bondness": 55}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 72%,但毛利率最新年报只有 14.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 47%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 72%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 14.6%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 23.2%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 14.6%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 72%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 6.4 倍 粗算,约 22%(1 − 5/PE)。<40%,估值靠当期。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / 25% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「纸及纸制品」9 家中位:PE 7.6 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 11.5% / 固定资产占比 54% / 分红率 0%。", "理文造纸:PE 比行业中位低 1.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 5.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.3个百分点。"]}}