{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.02281", "name": "兴泸水务", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "水务", "sw2": "水务", "sw3": "", "ind": "水务", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170331", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 0.59, "pe_ttm": 4.275, "pb": 0.145, "dv_ttm": 7.8, "total_mv": 50722.89, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [33.4], "rev_series": [13.8], "np_series": [1.3], "roe_series": [3.7], "rev_ttm": 13.8, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 64.6, "gm_median": 33.4, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 9.4, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 51.8, "fix_assets": 40.9, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 55.4, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 33.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.8, "np_yoy": -36.0, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 0.0, "earn_yield": 23.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -15.0, "ret_20": -7.8, "ret_60": -8.4, "ret_120": -22.8, "ret_250": -18.5, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 70.7, "eps": 0.141}, "S": {"duration": 10, "pricing": 49, "hard": 83, "bondness": 55}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 4.3 倍、股息率 7.8%、毛利率最新年报 33.4%、固定资产占比 52%、资产负债率 55%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 52%、毛利率 33.4% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(水务:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 64.6%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 33.4%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 52%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 4.3 倍 粗算,约 0%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -8% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「水务」15 家中位:PE 5.3 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 36.5% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 35%。", "兴泸水务:PE 比行业中位低 1.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 46.0个百分点。"]}}