{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.02259", "name": "紫金黄金国际", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "黄金及贵金属", "sw2": "黄金及贵金属", "sw3": "", "ind": "黄金及贵金属", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250930", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 162.9, "pe_ttm": 21.96, "pb": 5.953, "dv_ttm": 1.84, "total_mv": 43597567.197, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [52.7], "rev_series": [418.9], "np_series": [145.7], "roe_series": [30.0], "rev_ttm": 418.9, "np_ttm": 197.5, "ocf_ttm": 154.2, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 52.7, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 34.8, "roe_median": 30.0, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 34.9, "fix_assets": 243.7, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 217.5, "debt_ratio": 29.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 80.4, "np_yoy": 202.3, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 13.9, "ret_20": 20.1, "ret_60": 60.0, "ret_120": -21.4, "ret_250": 127.5, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 61.5, "eps": 4.657}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 70, "hard": 56, "bondness": 38}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 244 亿,占总资产 35%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:黄金及贵金属 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 3.5%,股息率 1.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 77%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 35%)和定价权(商品价格)。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 3.5%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 52.7%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 35%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.0 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 128%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 20% / 60% / -21%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「黄金及贵金属」17 家中位:PE 16.5 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.9% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 16%。", "紫金黄金国际:PE 比行业中位高 5.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.3个百分点。"]}}