{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.01907", "name": "中国旭阳集团", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "特殊化工用品", "sw2": "特殊化工用品", "sw3": "", "ind": "特殊化工用品", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20190315", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.885, "pe_ttm": 29.453, "pb": 0.572, "dv_ttm": 0.21, "total_mv": 801535.3645, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [7.8], "rev_series": [436.9], "np_series": [1.5], "roe_series": [0.5], "rev_ttm": 436.9, "np_ttm": 2.7, "ocf_ttm": 17.2, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 21.5, "gm_median": 7.8, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 0.3, "roe_median": 0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.9, "fix_assets": 306.6, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 17.5, "debt_ratio": 75.6, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 6.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -13.6, "np_yoy": 44.0, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -16.5, "ret_20": -5.0, "ret_60": -24.6, "ret_120": -33.6, "ret_250": -22.3, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 44.5, "eps": 0.015}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 36, "hard": 73, "bondness": 16}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率最新年报只有 7.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 76%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 7.8%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 21.5%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 7.8%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 46%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.5 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -25% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「特殊化工用品」31 家中位:PE 10.7 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 16.2% / 固定资产占比 39% / 分红率 9%。", "中国旭阳集团:PE 比行业中位高 18.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.6个百分点。"]}}