{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.01787", "name": "山东黄金", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "黄金及贵金属", "sw2": "黄金及贵金属", "sw3": "", "ind": "黄金及贵金属", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": true, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.74, "pe_ttm": 19.561, "pb": 3.231, "dv_ttm": 1.21, "total_mv": 12326951.54985, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [20.5], "rev_series": [1159.8], "np_series": [73.7], "roe_series": [13.7], "rev_ttm": 1159.8, "np_ttm": 62.9, "ocf_ttm": 123.9, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 10.1, "gm_median": 20.5, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 13.7, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 36.4, "fix_assets": 663.6, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 133.9, "debt_ratio": 62.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 24.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 32.1, "np_yoy": 56.1, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -22.0, "ret_20": 17.4, "ret_60": 28.8, "ret_120": -33.7, "ret_250": -7.7, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 49.4, "eps": 1.138}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 70, "hard": 58, "bondness": 29}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 664 亿,占总资产 36%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:黄金及贵金属 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 10.1%,股息率 1.2%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 74%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 36%)和定价权(商品价格)。 注意:金矿股不等于黄金,有运营杠杆和自身成本通胀,对冲美元信用直接买黄金 ETF 更纯。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 10.1%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 20.5%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 36%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.6 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 17% / 29% / -34%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「黄金及贵金属」17 家中位:PE 16.5 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 41.9% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 16%。", "山东黄金:PE 比行业中位高 3.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 21.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.8个百分点。"]}}