{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.01258", "name": "中国有色矿业", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "铜", "sw2": "铜", "sw3": "", "ind": "铜", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20120629", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.56, "pe_ttm": 14.337, "pb": 2.988, "dv_ttm": 2.49, "total_mv": 6461771.616, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [31.1], "rev_series": [266.1], "np_series": [45.4], "roe_series": [17.1], "rev_ttm": 266.1, "np_ttm": 44.8, "ocf_ttm": 113.5, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 17.6, "gm_median": 31.1, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 17.1, "roe_median": 17.1, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 34.1, "fix_assets": 118.7, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 63.6, "debt_ratio": 29.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 36.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -10.2, "np_yoy": 4.8, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 7.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 15.5, "ret_20": 3.3, "ret_60": 31.3, "ret_120": 30.4, "ret_250": 81.0, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 88.9, "eps": 0.806}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 70, "hard": 55, "bondness": 41}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 119 亿,占总资产 34%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铜 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 17.6%,股息率 2.5%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 65%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 34%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 17.6%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 31.1%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 34%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.3 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 89%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 31% / 30%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「铜」11 家中位:PE 9.3 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 6.8% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 12%。", "中国有色矿业:PE 比行业中位高 5.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.2个百分点。"]}}