{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.00941", "name": "中国移动", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "电讯服务", "sw2": "电讯服务", "sw3": "", "ind": "电讯服务", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19971023", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 79.65, "pe_ttm": 11.385, "pb": 1.03, "dv_ttm": 6.8, "total_mv": 172768318.41411, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [58.2], "rev_series": [11679.1], "np_series": [1526.5], "roe_series": [9.8], "rev_ttm": 11679.1, "np_ttm": 1514.0, "ocf_ttm": 2999.3, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 17.4, "gm_median": 58.2, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 13.1, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.6, "fix_assets": 7807.0, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 4106.6, "debt_ratio": 32.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 77.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.5, "np_yoy": 3.6, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 56.0, "earn_yield": 8.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 4.4, "ret_20": 0.9, "ret_60": 0.1, "ret_120": 8.2, "ret_250": -2.1, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 95.4, "eps": 6.998}, "S": {"duration": 25, "pricing": 61, "hard": 54, "bondness": 70}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:最新一年营收增速 5.5%、净利润增速 3.6%,没有增长故事。", "分红率 77%、股息率 6.8%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:资产负债率 33%(futu 无有息负债明细)。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 6.8% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 11.4 倍 倒过来就是 8.8% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 34%、毛利率 58.2% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电讯服务:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 17.4%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 58.2%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 34%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.4 倍 粗算,约 56%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,现价在 52 周高点的 95%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 0% / 8%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「电讯服务」10 家中位:PE 11.4 / 股息率 6.6% / 毛利率 47.6% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 77%。", "中国移动:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.0个百分点。"]}}