{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.00936", "name": "佳兆业资本", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "重型机械", "sw2": "重型机械", "sw3": "", "ind": "重型机械", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100719", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 0.31, "pe_ttm": 62.0, "pb": 7.75, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 32860.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [55.2], "rev_series": [2.4], "np_series": [0.1], "roe_series": [20.5], "rev_ttm": 2.4, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 13.9, "gm_median": 55.2, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 2.9, "roe_median": 20.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.8, "fix_assets": 2.0, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 92.1, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 0.0, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.5, "np_yoy": 106.0, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -6.1, "ret_20": 14.8, "ret_60": 19.2, "ret_120": 54.2, "ret_250": 195.2, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 23.0, "eps": 0.006}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 60, "hard": 67, "bondness": 13}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 2 亿,占总资产 42%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率最新年报 55.2%。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 13.9%,股息率 0.0%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 92%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 42%)和定价权(毛利率 55.2% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 13.9%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 55.2%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 42%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 62.0 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 195%,现价在 52 周高点的 23%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / 19% / 54%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年已经跑过,加仓看信号。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「重型机械」17 家中位:PE 12.7 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 32%。", "佳兆业资本:PE 比行业中位高 49.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 31.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.9个百分点。"]}}