{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.00909", "name": "明源云", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "应用软件", "sw2": "应用软件", "sw3": "", "ind": "应用软件", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200925", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.105, "pe_ttm": 100.454, "pb": 0.444, "dv_ttm": 9.14, "total_mv": 209776.40670999998, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [78.4], "rev_series": [14.3], "np_series": [0.3], "roe_series": [0.7], "rev_ttm": 14.3, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 6.5, "gm_median": 78.4, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.9, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 14.8, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 918.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -6.4, "np_yoy": 116.7, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -65.4, "ret_20": -16.0, "ret_60": -35.0, "ret_120": -54.0, "ret_250": -71.7, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 29.2, "eps": 0.018}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 71, "hard": 5, "bondness": 78}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 100.5 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 3%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 78.4%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 6.5%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 78.4%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 3%。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 100.5 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -72%,现价在 52 周高点的 29%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -35% / -54%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「应用软件」34 家中位:PE 18.4 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 48.9% / 固定资产占比 1% / 分红率 3%。", "明源云:PE 比行业中位高 82.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 9.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 29.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点。"]}}