{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.00841", "name": "木薯资源", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "包装食品", "sw2": "包装食品", "sw3": "", "ind": "包装食品", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20090323", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 0.173, "pe_ttm": -43.25, "pb": 0.191, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 10115.7721695, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [7.7], "rev_series": [12.8], "np_series": [0.0], "roe_series": [-0.5], "rev_ttm": 12.8, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 286.7, "gm_median": 7.7, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 0.3, "roe_median": -0.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.4, "fix_assets": 7.4, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 71.8, "debt_mv": null, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 30.4, "np_yoy": 102.2, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -33.5, "ret_20": -1.1, "ret_60": -8.0, "ret_120": -8.9, "ret_250": 64.8, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 57.7, "eps": -0.004}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 76, "bondness": 13}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 47%,但毛利率最新年报只有 7.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 72%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 7.7%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 286.7%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 7.7%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 47%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -8% / -9%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「包装食品」35 家中位:PE 12.8 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 23.1% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 32%。", "木薯资源:PE 比行业中位低 56.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 29.0个百分点。"]}}