{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.00827", "name": "玖源集团", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "化肥及农用化合物", "sw2": "化肥及农用化合物", "sw3": "", "ind": "化肥及农用化合物", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030710", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 0.046, "pe_ttm": -0.396, "pb": -0.696, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 32328.9959554, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [-3.0], "rev_series": [24.0], "np_series": [-8.5], "roe_series": [-1091.3], "rev_ttm": 24.0, "np_ttm": -8.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": -10.5, "gm_median": -3.0, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": -35.5, "roe_median": -1091.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.0, "fix_assets": 30.4, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": -6.0, "debt_ratio": 107.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -13.1, "np_yoy": -45.3, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 64.3, "ret_20": 9.5, "ret_60": 39.4, "ret_120": 12.2, "ret_250": 21.1, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 52.9, "eps": -0.118}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 32, "hard": 90, "bondness": 13}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 56%,但毛利率最新年报只有 -3.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "资产负债率 107%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 56%),没有定价权:毛利率最新年报 -3.0%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 -10.5%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 -3.0%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 56%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 39% / 12%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「化肥及农用化合物」9 家中位:PE 9.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 10.7% / 固定资产占比 45% / 分红率 21%。", "玖源集团:PE 比行业中位低 9.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.4个百分点。"]}}