{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.00737", "name": "湾区发展", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "铁路及公路", "sw2": "铁路及公路", "sw3": "", "ind": "铁路及公路", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20030806", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.96, "pe_ttm": 10.949, "pb": 1.108, "dv_ttm": 8.01, "total_mv": 653011.295468, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [39.1], "rev_series": [8.7], "np_series": [6.6], "roe_series": [10.3], "rev_ttm": 8.7, "np_ttm": 5.9, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 5.3, "gm_median": 39.1, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 75.0, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.9, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 9.2, "debt_ratio": 41.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 88.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -6.5, "np_yoy": 3.1, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 54.0, "earn_yield": 9.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 10.1, "ret_20": 5.9, "ret_60": 5.9, "ret_120": 5.9, "ret_250": 14.1, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 98.5, "eps": 0.155}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 52, "hard": 3, "bondness": 74}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:最新一年营收增速 -6.5%、净利润增速 3.1%,没有增长故事。", "分红率 88%、股息率 8.0%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:资产负债率 41%(futu 无有息负债明细)。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 8.0% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 10.9 倍 倒过来就是 9.1% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.1%),硬资产占比 2%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 5.3%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 39.1%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 2%。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.9 倍 粗算,约 54%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 14%,现价在 52 周高点的 98%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 6% / 6%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「铁路及公路」12 家中位:PE 8.7 / 股息率 7.0% / 毛利率 34.3% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 57%。", "湾区发展:PE 比行业中位高 2.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.7个百分点。"]}}