{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.00728", "name": "中国电信", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "电讯服务", "sw2": "电讯服务", "sw3": "", "ind": "电讯服务", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20021115", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.655, "pe_ttm": 12.446, "pb": 0.784, "dv_ttm": 6.23, "total_mv": 42596573.0643845, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [null], "rev_series": [5889.2], "np_series": [369.5], "roe_series": [7.4], "rev_ttm": 5889.2, "np_ttm": 343.2, "ocf_ttm": 872.5, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 20.5, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 6.3, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.5, "fix_assets": 4630.4, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 1637.7, "debt_ratio": 46.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 78.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 4.6, "np_yoy": 5.3, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 60.0, "earn_yield": 8.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -8.7, "ret_20": 7.9, "ret_60": -4.7, "ret_120": -1.4, "ret_250": -16.1, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 80.4, "eps": 0.402}, "S": {"duration": 27, "pricing": 32, "hard": 78, "bondness": 70}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:最新一年营收增速 4.6%、净利润增速 5.3%,没有增长故事。", "分红率 78%、股息率 6.2%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:资产负债率 46%(futu 无有息负债明细)。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 6.2% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 12.4 倍 倒过来就是 8.0% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 48%,但价格受管制(电讯服务:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),毛利率也不披露。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 20.5%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率未披露(公用事业 / 地产 / 综合企业常见)。价格受管制,不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 48%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.4 倍 粗算,约 60%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -5% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「电讯服务」10 家中位:PE 11.4 / 股息率 6.6% / 毛利率 47.6% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 77%。", "中国电信:PE 比行业中位高 1.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.9个百分点。"]}}