{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.00386", "name": "中国石油化工股份", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "油气生产商", "sw2": "油气生产商", "sw3": "", "ind": "油气生产商", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20001019", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.79, "pe_ttm": 14.255, "pb": 0.598, "dv_ttm": 2.69, "total_mv": 57923321.312338, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [21.5], "rev_series": [30956.2], "np_series": [398.2], "roe_series": [4.0], "rev_ttm": 30956.2, "np_ttm": 408.0, "ocf_ttm": 1860.9, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 32.1, "gm_median": 21.5, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 1.3, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 35.1, "fix_assets": 8171.8, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 2111.9, "debt_ratio": 54.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 38.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.4, "np_yoy": -33.4, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 7.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 5.5, "ret_20": 9.9, "ret_60": 16.5, "ret_120": -2.7, "ret_250": 16.1, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 86.0, "eps": 0.297}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 70, "hard": 56, "bondness": 42}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 8172 亿,占总资产 35%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:油气生产商 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:经营现金流/市值 32.1%,股息率 2.7%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 65%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 35%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 32.1%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 21.5%。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 35%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.3 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 16%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 16% / -3%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「油气生产商」22 家中位:PE 12.1 / 股息率 0.0% / 毛利率 7.3% / 固定资产占比 42% / 分红率 0%。", "中国石油化工股份:PE 比行业中位高 2.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点。"]}}