{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.00132", "name": "兴业控股", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "综合企业", "sw2": "综合企业", "sw3": "", "ind": "综合企业", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19730518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 0.164, "pe_ttm": 23.428, "pb": 0.224, "dv_ttm": 3.66, "total_mv": 28082.1979288, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [48.3], "rev_series": [8.8], "np_series": [0.8], "roe_series": [1.1], "rev_ttm": 8.8, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -5.1, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": -181.0, "gm_median": 48.3, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 9.3, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.4, "fix_assets": 6.0, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 76.9, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 86.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 10.6, "np_yoy": -33.7, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -32.3, "ret_20": -3.5, "ret_60": -14.2, "ret_120": -15.1, "ret_250": -30.0, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 58.7, "eps": 0.007}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 56, "hard": 12, "bondness": 65}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 86%、股息率 3.7%、最新一年营收增速 10.6%、资产负债率 77%:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 48.3%),硬资产占比 7%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 -181.0%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 48.3%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 7%。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.4 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -14% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「综合企业」19 家中位:PE 7.4 / 股息率 3.3% / 毛利率 44.1% / 固定资产占比 7% / 分红率 46%。", "兴业控股:PE 比行业中位高 16.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点。"]}}