{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.00097", "name": "恒基发展", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "其他零售商", "sw2": "其他零售商", "sw3": "", "ind": "其他零售商", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19721106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 0.138, "pe_ttm": -8.625, "pb": 0.423, "dv_ttm": 0.0, "total_mv": 42053.118051, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [3.0], "rev_series": [14.6], "np_series": [-0.7], "roe_series": [-6.5], "rev_ttm": 14.6, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 37.8, "gm_median": 3.0, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": -4.6, "roe_median": -6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.8, "fix_assets": 1.0, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": -0.5, "debt_ratio": 51.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.2, "np_yoy": 46.4, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": -25.8, "ret_20": -8.0, "ret_60": -12.7, "ret_120": -26.6, "ret_250": -48.9, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 45.2, "eps": -0.022}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 34, "hard": 8, "bondness": 13}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 51%,有息负债 —,经营现金流/市值 37.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率最新年报 3.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 37.8%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率最新年报 3.0%。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 5%。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -49%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -13% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「其他零售商」16 家中位:PE 6.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 31.1% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 44%。", "恒基发展:PE 比行业中位低 15.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 28.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点。"]}}