{"F": {"ts_code": "HK.00002", "name": "中电控股", "mkt": "HK", "ccy": "港元", "sw1": "常规电力", "sw2": "常规电力", "sw3": "", "ind": "常规电力", "fin_source": "futu", "market": "主板", "list_date": null, "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 77.25, "pe_ttm": 18.002, "pb": 1.766, "dv_ttm": 4.14, "total_mv": 19516830.65325, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["最近年报"], "multi_year": false, "period": "最近年报", "gm_series": [null], "rev_series": [880.2], "np_series": [115.5], "roe_series": [9.9], "rev_ttm": 880.2, "np_ttm": 110.5, "ocf_ttm": 244.8, "fcf_ttm": null, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": 12.5, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 13.1, "roe_median": 9.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 68.7, "fix_assets": 1623.1, "goodwill_ratio": null, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": null, "interest_debt": null, "debt_ebitda": null, "ebitda": 257.8, "debt_ratio": 50.8, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 75.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": null, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.2, "np_yoy": -9.2, "np_vol": null, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "", "prev2_year": "", "ret_ytd": 15.2, "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": 6.7, "ret_120": 7.2, "ret_250": 24.4, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": 97.6, "eps": 4.143}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 32, "hard": 100, "bondness": 64}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:最新一年营收增速 -3.2%、净利润增速 -9.2%,没有增长故事。", "分红率 75%、股息率 4.1%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:资产负债率 51%(futu 无有息负债明细)。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 4.1% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 18.0 倍 倒过来就是 5.6% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 69%,但价格受管制(常规电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),毛利率也不披露。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 12.5%(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率未披露(公用事业 / 地产 / 综合企业常见)。价格受管制,不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产占总资产 69%。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.0 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 98%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 7% / 7%。", "行业对照": ["同富途行业「常规电力」11 家中位:PE 7.2 / 股息率 5.1% / 毛利率 15.2% / 固定资产占比 63% / 分红率 52%。", "中电控股:PE 比行业中位高 10.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.1个百分点。"]}}