{"F": {"ts_code": "920992.BJ", "name": "中科美菱", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗设备", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221018", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.95, "pe_ttm": 64.6212, "pb": 1.8436, "dv_ttm": 0.7531, "total_mv": 115593.4661, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.9, 36.4, 38.2, 38.3, 36.2, 36.1], "rev_series": [3.7, 4.7, 4.1, 3.0, 3.0, 3.1], "np_series": [0.4, 0.7, 0.5, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [26.0, 32.1, 12.5, 2.7, 3.0, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 36.4, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 5.3, "npm_median": 6.2, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.1, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.84, "capex_dep": 0.29, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 16.7, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 45.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -8.8, "np_cagr3": -28.6, "rev_yoy": 4.0, "np_yoy": -11.0, "np_vol": 42.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 52.0, "fwd_pe2": 46.0, "fwd_g1": 24.0, "fwd_g2": 13.0, "peg": 4.0, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["超低温冷冻存储设备", 22.0], ["超低温冷冻储存箱系列", 22.0], ["低温存储设备", 20.0], ["低温仓储", 20.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.5, "ret_prev2_year": 8.1, "ret_ytd": -30.8, "ret_pivot": 54.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 63, "hard": 19, "bondness": 41}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 64.6 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 52.0 倍,次年 46.0 倍,PEG 4.00。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.4%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.4%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 0.29 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 64.6 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "中科美菱:PE 比行业中位高 26.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 19.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.8个百分点。"]}}