{"F": {"ts_code": "920981.BJ", "name": "晶赛科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "被动元件", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20211115", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.38, "pe_ttm": 147.4175, "pb": 4.3528, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 224662.984, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.1, 26.3, 18.9, 10.9, 13.2, 12.2], "rev_series": [3.2, 4.7, 3.9, 3.6, 5.3, 5.8], "np_series": [0.3, 0.7, 0.4, -0.1, 0.1, 0.1], "roe_series": [18.1, 19.1, 8.6, -1.1, 1.2, 1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.3, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 3.0, "gm_median": 13.2, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.57, "gm_chg_2022": -5.2, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.4, "fix_assets": 4.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.35, "capex_dep": 0.88, "interest_debt": 0.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 48.3, "debt_mv": 3.8, "payout": 187.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 14.2, "np_cagr3": -39.4, "rev_yoy": 56.2, "np_yoy": 205.5, "np_vol": 110.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["石英晶振", 55.0], ["封装材料", 25.0], ["其他业务", 20.0], ["石英晶片", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 21.2, "ret_prev2_year": 47.7, "ret_ytd": -8.1, "ret_pivot": 116.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 30, "hard": 74, "bondness": 44}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 13.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.2%,稳定度 57%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.2%,稳定度 57%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 0.88 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 147.4 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "晶赛科技:PE 比行业中位高 82.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.5个百分点。"]}}