{"F": {"ts_code": "920978.BJ", "name": "开特股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230928", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.99, "pe_ttm": 22.5201, "pb": 4.3631, "dv_ttm": 1.976, "total_mv": 359876.9075, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.5, 32.8, 31.0, 33.4, 32.6, 32.1], "rev_series": [2.8, 3.8, 5.1, 6.5, 8.3, 11.3], "np_series": [0.3, 0.5, 0.8, 1.1, 1.4, 1.7], "roe_series": [10.3, 14.1, 20.7, 23.0, 21.8, 23.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.7, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 4.8, "gm_median": 32.6, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -1.4, "npm_median": 15.3, "roe_median": 21.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.7, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.36, "capex_dep": 5.88, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 42.3, "debt_mv": 4.3, "payout": 42.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 30.0, "np_cagr3": 30.8, "rev_yoy": 9.0, "np_yoy": -15.7, "np_vol": 17.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.4, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 17.4, "fwd_pe2": 14.6, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 0.92, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["执行器类", 20.0], ["传感器类", 15.0], ["控制器类", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 178.4, "ret_prev2_year": -12.8, "ret_ytd": -45.3, "ret_pivot": 152.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 57, "hard": 43, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 22.5 倍、股息率 2.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.6%、固定资产占比 27%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.6%),硬资产占比 27%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 4.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.6%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 27%,资本开支/折旧 5.88 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.5 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "开特股份:PE 比行业中位低 7.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点。"]}}