{"F": {"ts_code": "920976.BJ", "name": "视声智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "安防设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230901", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.26, "pe_ttm": 18.4136, "pb": 5.3917, "dv_ttm": 2.9406, "total_mv": 143751.5884, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.8, 37.3, 43.5, 49.5, 51.5, 55.6], "rev_series": [1.8, 2.3, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5, 3.0], "np_series": [0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.7], "roe_series": [28.3, 32.0, 34.9, 20.5, 17.8, 24.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.4, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 49.5, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 2.7, "npm_median": 16.6, "roe_median": 24.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.6, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.39, "capex_dep": 18.35, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 28.1, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 64.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 9.3, "np_cagr3": 25.5, "rev_yoy": 29.3, "np_yoy": 39.9, "np_vol": 9.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 73.0, "earn_yield": 5.4, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 18.0, "fwd_pe2": 14.5, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能家居", 40.0], ["KNX空间智能产品", 40.0], ["可视对讲", 7.0], ["液晶显示屏及模组", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.6, "ret_prev2_year": 50.2, "ret_ytd": -23.3, "ret_pivot": 103.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 37, "pricing": 65, "hard": 35, "bondness": 51}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 40%,PE TTM 18.4 倍 但前瞻 PE 18.0 倍,PEG 0.75。", "自由现金流 0.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 24%(4 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 49.5%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.5%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 18.35 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.4 倍 粗算,约 73%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "视声智能:PE 比行业中位低 33.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.9个百分点。"]}}