{"F": {"ts_code": "920971.BJ", "name": "天马新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "非金属材料Ⅱ", "sw3": "非金属材料Ⅲ", "ind": "非金属材料Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220927", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.74, "pe_ttm": 57.4012, "pb": 6.0578, "dv_ttm": 0.756, "total_mv": 278010.4373, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.2, 37.7, 29.0, 26.2, 24.2, 17.7], "rev_series": [1.1, 2.1, 1.9, 1.9, 2.5, 2.7], "np_series": [0.2, 0.5, 0.4, 0.1, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [14.5, 47.4, 12.8, 2.8, 8.9, 8.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.7, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 26.2, "gm_std": 6.5, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 15.5, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.2, "fix_assets": 2.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.06, "capex_dep": 0.65, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 20.0, "debt_mv": 2.9, "payout": 55.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 13.7, "np_cagr3": 2.3, "rev_yoy": -4.7, "np_yoy": 477.9, "np_vol": 130.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 67.3, "fwd_pe2": 49.7, "fwd_g1": -15.0, "fwd_g2": 35.0, "peg": 1.92, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电子陶瓷用粉体材料", 27.0], ["其他精细氧化铝粉体材料", 11.0], ["高压电器用粉体材料", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.3, "ret_prev2_year": 59.7, "ret_ytd": -12.3, "ret_pivot": 240.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 46, "hard": 61, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 57.4 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.2%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.2%,稳定度 75%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.2%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 0.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 57.4 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非金属材料Ⅱ」14 家中位:PE 54.2 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 26.6% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 41%。", "天马新材:PE 比行业中位高 3.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点。"]}}