{"F": {"ts_code": "920970.BJ", "name": "大禹生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "动物保健Ⅱ", "sw3": "动物保健Ⅲ", "ind": "动物保健Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220518", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.58, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.5444, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 83987.0064, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.5, 48.3, 43.8, 27.3, 25.0, 8.0], "rev_series": [1.4, 1.8, 1.6, 1.6, 1.2, 1.7], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.2, -0.0, -0.2, -0.3], "roe_series": [21.1, 17.9, 6.4, -0.6, -7.8, -10.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.8, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -9.3, "ocf_yield": -1.9, "gm_median": 27.3, "gm_std": 14.4, "gm_stab": 0.47, "gm_chg_2022": -11.7, "npm_median": -1.3, "roe_median": -0.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 64.0, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.54, "capex_dep": 2.22, "interest_debt": 1.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 48.7, "debt_mv": 17.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 15.7, "np_yoy": -194.3, "np_vol": 402.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["混合型饲料添加剂", 26.0], ["微生态制剂", 26.0], ["生猪", 19.0], ["饲料", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.8, "ret_prev2_year": -18.2, "ret_ytd": -1.4, "ret_pivot": 124.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 34, "hard": 100, "bondness": 21}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 49%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 64%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%,稳定度 47%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.3%(经营现金流/市值 -1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%,稳定度 47%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 64%,资本开支/折旧 2.22 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「动物保健Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 37.8 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 39.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 64%。", "大禹生物:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 29.0个百分点。"]}}