{"F": {"ts_code": "920964.BJ", "name": "润农节水", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农业综合Ⅱ", "sw3": "农业综合Ⅲ", "ind": "农业综合Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20200727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.53, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.6735, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 144448.024, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.0, 25.8, 20.9, 18.4, 15.5, 13.5], "rev_series": [5.1, 5.9, 6.6, 7.5, 9.8, 10.3], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.5, 0.3, 0.1, -0.2], "roe_series": [8.2, 7.1, 5.8, 3.8, 0.9, -1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.4, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 16.5, "ocf_yield": 17.5, "gm_median": 18.4, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -5.1, "npm_median": 4.4, "roe_median": 3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.2, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 1.67, "capex_dep": 1.18, "interest_debt": 3.0, "debt_ebitda": 149.6, "debt_ratio": 47.2, "debt_mv": 20.5, "payout": 52.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 16.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 4.3, "np_yoy": -227.2, "np_vol": 115.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 69.1, "fwd_pe2": 34.6, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 100.0, "peg": 0.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["节水工程收入", 24.0], ["节水工程", 24.0], ["节水材料收入", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.5, "ret_prev2_year": 67.8, "ret_ytd": -17.3, "ret_pivot": 101.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 40, "hard": 8, "bondness": 37}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 47%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 17.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 16.5%(经营现金流/市值 17.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.4%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 1.18 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农业综合Ⅱ」3 家中位:PE 72.2 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 18.4% / 固定资产占比 5% / 分红率 53%。", "润农节水:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}