{"F": {"ts_code": "920961.BJ", "name": "创远信科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20200727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.78, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.143, "dv_ttm": 0.1377, "total_mv": 311106.6264, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.7, 42.6, 45.4, 49.6, 51.5, 54.2], "rev_series": [3.0, 4.2, 3.2, 2.7, 2.3, 2.0], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.2, 0.3, 0.1, 0.0], "roe_series": [9.4, 7.5, 3.1, 4.6, 1.7, 0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.7, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 2.4, "gm_median": 49.6, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 2.8, "npm_median": 6.5, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.0, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.14, "capex_dep": 4.4, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 42.5, "debt_mv": 5.8, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -13.7, "np_cagr3": -46.1, "rev_yoy": -31.5, "np_yoy": -419.0, "np_vol": 47.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 272.2, "fwd_pe2": 217.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 10.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电子测试测量仪器及解决方案", 90.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0], ["主营-其他", 5.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 91.8, "ret_prev2_year": 8.3, "ret_ytd": -23.1, "ret_pivot": 164.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 67, "hard": 34, "bondness": 52}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 42%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 49.6%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.6%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 4.40 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "创远信科:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 21.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点。"]}}