{"F": {"ts_code": "920950.BJ", "name": "迅安科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230111", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.66, "pe_ttm": 25.8924, "pb": 3.1938, "dv_ttm": 2.6354, "total_mv": 100155.12, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.4, 38.6, 38.4, 41.4, 41.3, 41.0], "rev_series": [1.8, 2.1, 1.8, 2.1, 2.2, 1.9], "np_series": [0.4, 0.6, 0.4, 0.6, 0.6, 0.4], "roe_series": [49.8, 60.2, 24.9, 21.8, 20.7, 13.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.0, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 41.0, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 26.4, "roe_median": 21.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.2, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.19, "capex_dep": 1.34, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 18.0, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 52.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 1.5, "np_cagr3": 1.0, "rev_yoy": 15.0, "np_yoy": -14.6, "np_vol": 27.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 27.0], ["电焊防护面罩及配件", 22.0], ["面罩配件-电焊防护面罩", 18.0], ["电焊防护面罩", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.1, "ret_prev2_year": -5.8, "ret_ytd": -22.5, "ret_pivot": 67.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 48, "pricing": 59, "hard": 50, "bondness": 53}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 1 亿,占总资产 31%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 41.0%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 1.0%,股息率 2.6%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 81%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 31%)和定价权(毛利率 41.0% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 41.0%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 31%,资本开支/折旧 1.34 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.9 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "迅安科技:PE 比行业中位低 24.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 12.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.4个百分点。"]}}