{"F": {"ts_code": "920942.BJ", "name": "恒立钻具", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械器件", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.01, "pe_ttm": 94.4397, "pb": 2.3387, "dv_ttm": 0.7891, "total_mv": 116273.9046, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.2, 39.4, 38.5, 41.1, 39.9, 32.8], "rev_series": [1.6, 2.2, 2.0, 1.7, 2.0, 1.7], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.3, 0.4, 0.4, 0.2], "roe_series": [37.5, 27.2, 9.7, 10.0, 8.0, 4.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.8, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 39.4, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -0.8, "npm_median": 19.5, "roe_median": 9.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.1, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.34, "capex_dep": 1.61, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 22.6, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 24.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -5.3, "np_cagr3": -13.9, "rev_yoy": 5.5, "np_yoy": -52.5, "np_vol": 32.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["盾构及TBM刀具", 25.0], ["TBM刀具", 25.0], ["合金制品", 16.0], ["顶管刀具", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 124.4, "ret_prev2_year": 8.0, "ret_ytd": -37.6, "ret_pivot": 148.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 59, "hard": 18, "bondness": 34}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 94.4 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.4%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.61 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 94.4 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "恒立钻具:PE 比行业中位高 66.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.1个百分点。"]}}