{"F": {"ts_code": "920906.BJ", "name": "舜宇精工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "车身附件及饰件", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.8, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.9288, "dv_ttm": 0.5298, "total_mv": 109149.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.0, 19.3, 19.0, 19.2, 13.8, 17.3], "rev_series": [5.1, 7.2, 8.5, 7.6, 7.2, 7.5], "np_series": [0.3, 0.5, 0.6, 0.4, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [9.9, 13.2, 16.0, 7.7, 3.2, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.4, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 8.1, "ocf_yield": 9.3, "gm_median": 19.0, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -3.0, "npm_median": 5.1, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.6, "fix_assets": 4.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.93, "capex_dep": 0.33, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 54.1, "debt_mv": 20.9, "payout": 19.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -4.0, "np_cagr3": -22.8, "rev_yoy": -0.9, "np_yoy": -108.7, "np_vol": 48.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["内饰功能件", 38.0], ["模具", 9.0], ["AGV集成", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 72.7, "ret_prev2_year": -17.8, "ret_ytd": -42.2, "ret_pivot": 68.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 52, "bondness": 37}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 89%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.1%(经营现金流/市值 9.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 0.33 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "舜宇精工:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点。"]}}