{"F": {"ts_code": "920895.BJ", "name": "花溪科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "农用机械", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230406", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.52, "pe_ttm": 1393.4366, "pb": 8.0126, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 155554.048, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.8, 36.1, 34.3, 30.9, 24.0, 23.2], "rev_series": [1.4, 1.7, 1.4, 0.8, 0.8, 0.7], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.0, 0.0, -0.0], "roe_series": [33.1, 29.5, 20.8, 1.9, 0.8, -2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 0.8, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 30.9, "gm_std": 5.3, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -8.5, "npm_median": 4.3, "roe_median": 1.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.5, "fix_assets": 0.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.01, "capex_dep": 0.71, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 13.2, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 583.3, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -22.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 102.5, "np_yoy": 106.1, "np_vol": 135.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["牵引式打捆机", 46.0], ["牵引式", 46.0], ["玉米割台", 3.0], ["割台", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 69.0, "ret_prev2_year": -12.9, "ret_ytd": 34.5, "ret_pivot": 307.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 49, "bondness": 56}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 1393.4 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 30.9%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 30.9%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.9%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.71 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1393.4 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "花溪科技:PE 比行业中位高 1351.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.5个百分点。"]}}