{"F": {"ts_code": "920885.BJ", "name": "星辰科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "工控设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20210708", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.06, "pe_ttm": 96.3985, "pb": 5.3857, "dv_ttm": 0.4594, "total_mv": 223090.7894, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [53.4, 52.7, 45.3, 43.2, 41.9, 39.1], "rev_series": [1.4, 1.4, 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 2.0], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.2, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [22.5, 15.7, 6.4, 3.5, 4.3, 8.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.1, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 43.2, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -8.1, "npm_median": 17.3, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.1, "fix_assets": 0.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.39, "capex_dep": 2.71, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.4, "debt_ratio": 35.6, "debt_mv": 3.4, "payout": 47.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.7, "np_cagr3": 13.2, "rev_yoy": 17.5, "np_yoy": -49.4, "np_vol": 57.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 50.2, "fwd_pe2": 43.5, "fwd_g1": 92.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 3.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["新能源伺服系统", 33.0], ["航空航天、军工等专用伺服系统", 25.0], ["航空航天、军工伺服系统", 25.0], ["工业控制伺服系统", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 92.7, "ret_prev2_year": 26.7, "ret_ytd": -44.1, "ret_pivot": 151.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 56, "hard": 11, "bondness": 30}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 96.4 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 50.2 倍,次年 43.5 倍,PEG 3.35。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.2%),硬资产占比 7%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.2%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 2.71 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 96.4 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "星辰科技:PE 比行业中位高 19.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点。"]}}