{"F": {"ts_code": "920879.BJ", "name": "基康技术", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221220", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.4, "pe_ttm": 32.5267, "pb": 4.2008, "dv_ttm": 1.5299, "total_mv": 269164.2108, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [49.4, 51.6, 50.8, 54.6, 56.1, 52.7], "rev_series": [2.1, 2.6, 3.0, 3.3, 3.6, 4.1], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.8], "roe_series": [9.6, 11.5, 11.8, 12.8, 13.4, 13.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.1, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 52.7, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 1.4, "npm_median": 20.4, "roe_median": 12.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.5, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.2, "capex_dep": 0.49, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 18.8, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 60.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 10.9, "np_cagr3": 10.9, "rev_yoy": 2.8, "np_yoy": 0.4, "np_vol": 7.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 25.0, "fwd_pe2": 21.5, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.56, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["智能监测终端", 40.0], ["安全监测物联网解决方案及服务", 10.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 121.5, "ret_prev2_year": 6.1, "ret_ytd": -23.8, "ret_pivot": 150.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 68, "hard": 7, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.5 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 52.7%、固定资产占比 4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 52.7%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.7%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 0.49 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.5 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "基康技术:PE 比行业中位低 18.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.3个百分点。"]}}