{"F": {"ts_code": "920866.BJ", "name": "绿亨科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "农药", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221209", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.16, "pe_ttm": 43.8036, "pb": 1.6825, "dv_ttm": 1.3722, "total_mv": 129027.4244, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [45.9, 46.9, 42.8, 39.6, 37.9, 42.4], "rev_series": [3.3, 3.9, 3.9, 4.2, 5.0, 5.0], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.3], "roe_series": [19.0, 17.4, 8.6, 6.9, 6.5, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.6, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -3.4, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 42.4, "gm_std": 3.1, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 11.6, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.3, "fix_assets": 3.7, "goodwill_ratio": 4.4, "pb_calc": 1.68, "capex_dep": 1.9, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 25.9, "debt_mv": 14.3, "payout": 53.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 8.6, "np_cagr3": -12.4, "rev_yoy": -16.1, "np_yoy": -15.9, "np_vol": 18.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["农药", 35.0], ["种子销售", 22.0], ["种子", 22.0], ["肥料", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.7, "ret_prev2_year": -5.3, "ret_ytd": -10.7, "ret_pivot": 49.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 59, "hard": 53, "bondness": 45}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 4 亿,占总资产 33%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 42.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -3.4%,股息率 1.4%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 89%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 33%)和定价权(毛利率 42.4% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 42.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 1.90 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 43.8 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "绿亨科技:PE 比行业中位高 23.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点。"]}}