{"F": {"ts_code": "920857.BJ", "name": "泓禧科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220228", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.4, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.9595, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 158375.3053, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.8, 19.3, 14.9, 19.9, 13.3, 4.9], "rev_series": [4.4, 5.3, 4.3, 4.5, 4.7, 3.9], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.4, 0.2, -0.2], "roe_series": [31.5, 26.5, 12.4, 10.1, 4.2, -5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.8, "np_ttm": -0.6, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -6.3, "ocf_yield": -3.8, "gm_median": 14.9, "gm_std": 5.4, "gm_stab": 0.64, "gm_chg_2022": -8.9, "npm_median": 7.7, "roe_median": 10.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.7, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.96, "capex_dep": 4.02, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 38.8, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": 51.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -2.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.8, "np_yoy": -1246.8, "np_vol": 90.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["高精度电子线组件小计", 23.0], ["高精度电子线组件", 23.0], ["扬声器", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 151.3, "ret_prev2_year": -25.4, "ret_ytd": -39.5, "ret_pivot": 140.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 34, "hard": 44, "bondness": 41}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 39%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -3.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 14.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.3%(经营现金流/市值 -3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.9%,稳定度 64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 4.02 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "泓禧科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点。"]}}