{"F": {"ts_code": "920839.BJ", "name": "万通液压", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械器件", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20201109", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.02, "pe_ttm": 24.7197, "pb": 4.5484, "dv_ttm": 2.1982, "total_mv": 295761.3474, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.3, 26.1, 21.8, 21.9, 27.9, 29.9], "rev_series": [3.2, 3.4, 5.0, 6.7, 6.3, 7.0], "np_series": [0.6, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.1, 1.3], "roe_series": [19.0, 10.5, 14.5, 16.2, 19.7, 20.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.2, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 26.1, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -8.5, "npm_median": 12.7, "roe_median": 16.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.2, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.48, "capex_dep": 0.54, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 34.4, "debt_mv": 4.7, "payout": 54.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.3, "np_cagr3": 25.6, "rev_yoy": 8.2, "np_yoy": -8.7, "np_vol": 26.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.0, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 20.4, "fwd_pe2": 17.2, "fwd_g1": 21.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.13, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["机械装备用缸", 31.0], ["机械装备用油缸", 31.0], ["自卸车专用油缸", 23.0], ["油气弹簧", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 166.7, "ret_prev2_year": 34.3, "ret_ytd": -39.6, "ret_pivot": 179.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 48, "hard": 31, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.7 倍、股息率 2.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.1%、固定资产占比 19%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.54 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.7 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "万通液压:PE 比行业中位低 3.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点。"]}}