{"F": {"ts_code": "920832.BJ", "name": "齐鲁华信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "非金属材料Ⅱ", "sw3": "非金属材料Ⅲ", "ind": "非金属材料Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20210223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.7, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3043, "dv_ttm": 1.194, "total_mv": 92971.7896, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.6, 25.7, 19.0, 16.7, 15.8, 15.4], "rev_series": [5.6, 5.8, 5.8, 3.7, 4.4, 4.0], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.5, 0.1, 0.1, -0.1], "roe_series": [15.3, 10.3, 6.3, 1.2, 1.4, -0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.2, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.0, "ocf_yield": 4.8, "gm_median": 16.7, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -12.6, "npm_median": 2.6, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 46.1, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.3, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 9.4, "debt_ratio": 25.3, "debt_mv": 14.9, "payout": 108.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -11.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -40.2, "np_yoy": -499.9, "np_vol": 59.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 42.0], ["石油化工催化分子筛", 26.0], ["环保新材料系列", 7.0], ["环保催化分子筛", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.4, "ret_prev2_year": 4.6, "ret_ytd": -6.4, "ret_pivot": 76.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 74, "bondness": 77}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 46%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 9.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 46%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 77%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.7%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 46%,资本开支/折旧 1.38 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非金属材料Ⅱ」14 家中位:PE 54.2 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 26.6% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 41%。", "齐鲁华信:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.9个百分点。"]}}