{"F": {"ts_code": "920826.BJ", "name": "盖世食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "预加工食品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20210112", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.68, "pe_ttm": 29.9422, "pb": 3.5344, "dv_ttm": 1.0331, "total_mv": 136019.308, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.4, 21.6, 17.6, 19.3, 17.7, 18.6], "rev_series": [2.2, 3.4, 3.6, 4.9, 5.3, 6.3], "np_series": [0.3, 0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5], "roe_series": [20.7, 22.3, 12.3, 11.1, 12.4, 13.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.1, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 4.0, "gm_median": 18.6, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 7.7, "roe_median": 12.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.3, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.53, "capex_dep": 0.83, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 35.4, "debt_mv": 9.4, "payout": 34.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.1, "np_cagr3": 13.8, "rev_yoy": 31.0, "np_yoy": -10.6, "np_vol": 27.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.3, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 24.5, "fwd_pe2": 21.1, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.53, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["鱼籽产品", 15.0], ["鱼子", 15.0], ["藻类", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.2, "ret_prev2_year": 16.1, "ret_ytd": -26.6, "ret_pivot": 93.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 53, "pricing": 45, "hard": 55, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.83 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.9 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "盖世食品:PE 比行业中位高 0.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.8个百分点。"]}}