{"F": {"ts_code": "920821.BJ", "name": "则成电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20220706", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.15, "pe_ttm": 451.9206, "pb": 4.8007, "dv_ttm": 0.1818, "total_mv": 251126.8467, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.5, 24.8, 26.5, 27.5, 26.7, 25.1], "rev_series": [2.4, 3.3, 3.3, 3.1, 3.9, 3.9], "np_series": [0.4, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2], "roe_series": [16.2, 11.4, 7.1, 5.3, 5.0, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.7, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 26.5, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 8.5, "roe_median": 5.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.7, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.8, "capex_dep": 3.24, "interest_debt": 1.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 37.9, "debt_mv": 6.3, "payout": 38.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 6.3, "np_cagr3": -18.4, "rev_yoy": -10.2, "np_yoy": -84.5, "np_vol": 13.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["消费电子类", 27.0], ["食品医疗类", 25.0], ["印刷电路板", 18.0], ["印制电路板", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.1, "ret_prev2_year": 111.2, "ret_ytd": -30.3, "ret_pivot": 27.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 80, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 451.9 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.5%、固定资产占比 50%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.5%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.5%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 3.24 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 451.9 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "则成电子:PE 比行业中位高 386.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.8个百分点。"]}}