{"F": {"ts_code": "920810.BJ", "name": "春光智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "印刷包装机械", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221216", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.16, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.857, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 87844.4, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.6, 50.7, 47.1, 32.2, 15.4, 28.7], "rev_series": [1.0, 1.8, 2.2, 1.7, 0.8, 1.3], "np_series": [0.0, 0.3, 0.4, 0.1, -0.5, 0.0], "roe_series": [3.5, 40.1, 21.6, 5.1, -19.1, 0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.2, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -3.9, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 32.2, "gm_std": 12.8, "gm_stab": 0.6, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 8.6, "roe_median": 5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.3, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.86, "capex_dep": 4.93, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 461.9, "debt_ratio": 52.0, "debt_mv": 12.1, "payout": 47.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -15.5, "np_cagr3": -68.9, "rev_yoy": -14.6, "np_yoy": -126.2, "np_vol": 538.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["药品包装设备", 52.0], ["食品包装设备", 28.0], ["配件系列", 6.0], ["其他产品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 112.9, "ret_prev2_year": -14.4, "ret_ytd": -30.3, "ret_pivot": 143.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 72, "bondness": 52}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 52%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.2%,稳定度 60%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.2%,稳定度 60%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 4.93 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "春光智能:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.3个百分点。"]}}