{"F": {"ts_code": "920808.BJ", "name": "曙光数创", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 63.38, "pe_ttm": 2971.4829, "pb": 18.6633, "dv_ttm": 0.0584, "total_mv": 1267600.0063, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.1, 40.7, 40.0, 31.4, 30.1, 25.7], "rev_series": [3.4, 4.1, 5.2, 6.5, 5.1, 8.8], "np_series": [0.7, 0.9, 1.2, 1.0, 0.6, 0.4], "roe_series": [60.9, 49.3, 28.8, 16.5, 8.7, 5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.9, "np_ttm": 0.0, "ocf_ttm": -4.7, "fcf_ttm": -6.0, "fcf_yield": -4.7, "ocf_yield": -3.7, "gm_median": 31.4, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": 0.9, "npm_median": 16.1, "roe_median": 16.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.5, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 18.66, "capex_dep": 6.88, "interest_debt": 6.6, "debt_ebitda": 15.9, "debt_ratio": 65.9, "debt_mv": 5.2, "payout": 20.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 19.5, "np_cagr3": -31.9, "rev_yoy": 75.6, "np_yoy": -80.0, "np_vol": 32.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.0, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 192.1, "fwd_pe2": 118.7, "fwd_g1": 1447.0, "fwd_g2": 62.0, "peg": 3.1, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["冷板液冷产品", 28.0], ["C7000冷板式液冷系统", 28.0], ["配套产品", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.4, "ret_prev2_year": 77.7, "ret_ytd": -10.7, "ret_pivot": 127.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 15, "bondness": 23}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 2971.5 倍,估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 192.1 倍,次年 118.7 倍,PEG 3.10。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.7%(经营现金流/市值 -3.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.4%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 6.88 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 2971.5 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "曙光数创:PE 比行业中位高 2919.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点。"]}}