{"F": {"ts_code": "920799.BJ", "name": "艾融软件", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20200727", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.87, "pe_ttm": 225.9284, "pb": 19.6844, "dv_ttm": 0.6772, "total_mv": 771119.0898, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.1, 34.1, 31.3, 33.2, 32.1, 30.7], "rev_series": [2.8, 4.2, 6.1, 6.1, 6.1, 4.8], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.7, 0.7, 0.6], "roe_series": [18.1, 14.3, 14.8, 18.9, 16.6, 15.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.2, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -0.4, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 32.1, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -10.8, "npm_median": 12.0, "roe_median": 15.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.6, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 18.9, "pb_calc": 19.68, "capex_dep": 1.17, "interest_debt": 5.4, "debt_ebitda": 13.7, "debt_ratio": 63.2, "debt_mv": 7.0, "payout": 80.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.6, "np_cagr3": 7.8, "rev_yoy": 21.7, "np_yoy": -80.2, "np_vol": 15.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["技术开发", 89.0], ["技术服务", 6.0], ["产品销售及其他", 3.0], ["产品销售", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -7.0, "ret_prev2_year": 293.4, "ret_ytd": -22.4, "ret_pivot": 300.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 6, "bondness": 67}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["商誉占比高"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 225.9 倍,估值里约 98% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 4%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.1%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 1.17 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 225.9 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "艾融软件:PE 比行业中位高 143.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 16.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点。"]}}