{"F": {"ts_code": "920786.BJ", "name": "骑士乳业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "乳品", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20231013", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.26, "pe_ttm": 24.01, "pb": 2.2201, "dv_ttm": 1.2107, "total_mv": 172677.778, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.4, 20.5, 21.4, 19.0, 16.2, 15.8], "rev_series": [7.1, 8.8, 9.5, 12.6, 13.0, 13.2], "np_series": [0.2, 0.6, 0.7, 0.9, -0.1, 0.5], "roe_series": [5.6, 12.6, 15.1, 14.4, -1.0, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.7, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 13.7, "gm_median": 19.0, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 6.0, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 12.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.2, "fix_assets": 8.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.22, "capex_dep": 2.04, "interest_debt": 5.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 55.0, "debt_mv": 34.1, "payout": 38.9, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 11.7, "np_cagr3": -11.9, "rev_yoy": -7.1, "np_yoy": 139.9, "np_vol": 296.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 29.5, "fwd_pe2": 20.1, "fwd_g1": -19.0, "fwd_g2": 46.0, "peg": 0.64, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["生鲜乳", 36.0], ["液态奶", 18.0], ["白砂糖", 15.0], ["其他乳制品等", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.2, "ret_prev2_year": -8.8, "ret_ytd": -14.7, "ret_pivot": 91.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 52, "hard": 69, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 43%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 13.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 2.04 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.0 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "骑士乳业:PE 比行业中位低 5.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.5个百分点。"]}}