{"F": {"ts_code": "920726.BJ", "name": "朱老六", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "sw3": "调味发酵品Ⅲ", "ind": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20210527", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.5, "pe_ttm": 45.0239, "pb": 3.7949, "dv_ttm": 1.0896, "total_mv": 177292.5, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.7, 35.7, 32.3, 25.0, 22.2, 21.5], "rev_series": [2.6, 2.8, 3.0, 2.4, 2.4, 2.2], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [25.6, 18.2, 14.3, 4.9, 4.2, 4.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.3, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 3.7, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 25.0, "gm_std": 5.7, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 9.2, "roe_median": 4.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.5, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.79, "capex_dep": 0.11, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 6.3, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 93.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -10.8, "np_cagr3": -32.4, "rev_yoy": 17.3, "np_yoy": 178.9, "np_vol": 30.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["腐乳", 79.0], ["酸菜", 19.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["料酒", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.4, "ret_prev2_year": 88.6, "ret_ytd": -13.3, "ret_pivot": 142.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 68, "pricing": 44, "hard": 55, "bondness": 62}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 45.0 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%、固定资产占比 34%、资产负债率 6%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%,稳定度 77%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.7%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.11 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 45.0 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「调味发酵品Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 34.4% / 固定资产占比 39% / 分红率 67%。", "朱老六:PE 比行业中位高 17.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.2个百分点。"]}}