{"F": {"ts_code": "920719.BJ", "name": "宁新新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "非金属材料Ⅱ", "sw3": "非金属材料Ⅲ", "ind": "非金属材料Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230526", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.5, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 10.5174, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 69820.05, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.6, 36.5, 32.3, 24.1, 7.1, -33.8], "rev_series": [2.4, 3.8, 5.6, 7.2, 3.7, 2.0], "np_series": [0.4, 0.7, 0.9, 0.6, -2.6, -5.0], "roe_series": [11.0, 16.1, 17.0, 7.6, -32.0, -120.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.8, "np_ttm": -5.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": -1.6, "gm_median": 24.1, "gm_std": 25.6, "gm_stab": -0.06, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 9.9, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.5, "fix_assets": 6.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.52, "capex_dep": 0.02, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 94.6, "debt_mv": 101.8, "payout": 14.3, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -28.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -24.3, "np_yoy": -88.6, "np_vol": 220.5, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["特种石墨制品", 48.0], ["特种石墨", 29.0], ["受托加工产品", 9.0], ["加工及其他", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.8, "ret_prev2_year": -32.5, "ret_ytd": -41.9, "ret_pivot": 28.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 19, "hard": 86, "bondness": 28}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -5.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 95%,有息负债 7 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.1%,稳定度 -6%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 -1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.1%,稳定度 -6%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 0.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非金属材料Ⅱ」14 家中位:PE 54.2 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 26.6% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 41%。", "宁新新材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.3个百分点。"]}}