{"F": {"ts_code": "920718.BJ", "name": "合肥高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "sw3": "家电零部件Ⅲ", "ind": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20221222", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.54, "pe_ttm": 118.1254, "pb": 1.6701, "dv_ttm": 1.8975, "total_mv": 95562.7018, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.8, 12.5, 11.6, 13.5, 12.5, 10.1], "rev_series": [6.4, 8.6, 9.2, 10.5, 12.0, 11.4], "np_series": [0.2, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.8, 0.4], "roe_series": [8.0, 16.1, 12.1, 13.0, 14.3, 6.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.5, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -3.9, "ocf_yield": 11.2, "gm_median": 12.5, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -1.2, "npm_median": 5.1, "roe_median": 13.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.3, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.67, "capex_dep": 3.64, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 41.8, "debt_mv": 4.7, "payout": 29.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 7.5, "np_cagr3": -4.7, "rev_yoy": -16.3, "np_yoy": -101.8, "np_vol": 52.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 22.4, "fwd_pe2": 19.5, "fwd_g1": 427.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.49, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["金属结构件", 79.0], ["装饰面板", 7.0], ["金属模具", 5.0], ["其他及其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.8, "ret_prev2_year": -2.5, "ret_ytd": -29.6, "ret_pivot": 30.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 45, "hard": 68, "bondness": 36}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.5%,稳定度 91%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.9%(经营现金流/市值 11.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 3.64 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 118.1 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家电零部件Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 50.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 39%。", "合肥高科:PE 比行业中位高 67.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.7个百分点。"]}}