{"F": {"ts_code": "920706.BJ", "name": "铁拓机械", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "工程机械", "sw3": "工程机械整机", "ind": "工程机械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20240308", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.8, "pe_ttm": 57.0843, "pb": 2.4926, "dv_ttm": 0.9273, "total_mv": 149476.2871, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.6, 28.8, 29.0, 32.4, 30.3, 31.2], "rev_series": [3.4, 2.4, 3.6, 4.1, 4.6, 3.8], "np_series": [0.4, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.5, 0.5], "roe_series": [17.4, 6.1, 13.8, 18.0, 11.0, 8.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.3, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 30.3, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -4.6, "npm_median": 11.6, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.2, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.49, "capex_dep": 3.37, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 28.1, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 28.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 1.5, "np_cagr3": 4.8, "rev_yoy": -18.7, "np_yoy": -60.2, "np_vol": 72.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["沥青混合料搅拌设备", 46.0], ["原生沥青混合料搅拌设备", 46.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0], ["其他", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 105.6, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -36.4, "ret_pivot": 99.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 52, "hard": 56, "bondness": 35}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 3 亿,占总资产 35%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 30.3%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -0.6%,股息率 0.9%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 91%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 35%)和定价权(毛利率 30.3% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.3%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 3.37 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 57.1 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工程机械」35 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 26.1% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 33%。", "铁拓机械:PE 比行业中位高 28.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.0个百分点。"]}}