{"F": {"ts_code": "920701.BJ", "name": "豪声电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230719", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.48, "pe_ttm": 46.5007, "pb": 2.143, "dv_ttm": 2.8045, "total_mv": 171225.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.6, 16.0, 18.5, 12.8, 14.0, 18.2], "rev_series": [6.2, 7.7, 6.7, 6.4, 8.0, 8.9], "np_series": [0.4, 0.4, 0.7, 1.7, 1.7, 0.7], "roe_series": [14.6, 13.0, 20.9, 33.5, 23.1, 8.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.5, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.8, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 16.0, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 2.0, "npm_median": 9.8, "roe_median": 20.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.2, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.14, "capex_dep": 0.99, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 24.5, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 24.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 10.2, "np_cagr3": 2.3, "rev_yoy": -11.3, "np_yoy": -96.1, "np_vol": 74.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["电声元器件及组件", 28.0], ["微型电声元器件", 28.0], ["音响类电声产品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.7, "ret_prev2_year": 72.8, "ret_ytd": -29.5, "ret_pivot": 32.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 47, "hard": 64, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.8%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.0%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 0.99 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 46.5 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "豪声电子:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.4个百分点。"]}}