{"F": {"ts_code": "920699.BJ", "name": "海达尔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "sw3": "家电零部件Ⅲ", "ind": "家电零部件Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230509", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 70.46, "pe_ttm": 91.1327, "pb": 13.1143, "dv_ttm": 0.3852, "total_mv": 450066.2093, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.6, 23.7, 21.8, 23.4, 29.8, 29.5], "rev_series": [2.0, 2.6, 2.6, 2.9, 4.2, 3.7], "np_series": [0.2, 0.3, 0.3, 0.4, 0.8, 0.6], "roe_series": [29.9, 37.3, 33.2, 21.7, 28.9, 19.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.4, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.1, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 23.7, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -1.8, "npm_median": 13.6, "roe_median": 28.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.8, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 13.11, "capex_dep": 8.94, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 34.8, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 36.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 12.0, "np_cagr3": 28.1, "rev_yoy": -17.9, "np_yoy": -42.4, "np_vol": 43.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 65.4, "fwd_pe2": 47.2, "fwd_g1": 39.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 1.68, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["滑轨", 97.0], ["其他业务", 2.0], ["钣金件", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.3, "ret_prev2_year": 131.0, "ret_ytd": 109.7, "ret_pivot": 466.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 48, "hard": 27, "bondness": 24}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 91.1 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 17%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(5 篇研报)前瞻 PE 65.4 倍,次年 47.2 倍,PEG 1.68。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.7%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 8.94 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 91.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家电零部件Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 50.3 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 18.8% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 39%。", "海达尔:PE 比行业中位高 40.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点。"]}}