{"F": {"ts_code": "920694.BJ", "name": "中裕科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "橡胶", "sw3": "其他橡胶制品", "ind": "橡胶", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "北交所", "list_date": "20230424", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.8, "pe_ttm": 17.4971, "pb": 2.3592, "dv_ttm": 1.7936, "total_mv": 220935.9298, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.0, 41.4, 43.1, 46.5, 48.8, 48.5], "rev_series": [2.7, 3.6, 6.1, 6.7, 6.0, 7.1], "np_series": [0.5, 0.5, 0.9, 1.3, 1.0, 0.9], "roe_series": [22.6, 20.8, 30.7, 23.2, 13.4, 10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.0, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 8.3, "gm_median": 46.5, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -0.9, "npm_median": 15.1, "roe_median": 20.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.0, "fix_assets": 4.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.36, "capex_dep": 2.65, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 30.1, "debt_mv": 4.8, "payout": 28.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 5.4, "np_cagr3": -0.8, "rev_yoy": 24.1, "np_yoy": 69.2, "np_vol": 36.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 16.4, "fwd_pe2": 13.4, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 22.0, "peg": 0.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["耐高压大流量输送软管", 61.0], ["普通轻型输送软管", 23.0], ["钢衬改性聚氨酯耐磨管", 11.0], ["配件", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.0, "ret_prev2_year": -24.4, "ret_ytd": -12.6, "ret_pivot": 124.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": null, "ret_60": null, "ret_120": null, "ret_250": null, "mdd_250": null, "vol_250": null, "pos_52w": null}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 63, "hard": 56, "bondness": 37}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["成长兑现", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 5 亿,占总资产 35%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 46.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 3.9%,股息率 1.8%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 71%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 35%)和定价权(毛利率 46.5% 且稳定)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 8.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.9 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 35%,资本开支/折旧 2.65 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.5 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "行业对照": ["同申万二级「橡胶」23 家中位:PE 29.4 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 23.7% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 47%。", "中裕科技:PE 比行业中位低 11.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 22.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.0个百分点。"]}}